In the Year 2000............

Do you remember when Conan O’Brien had that bit on his late night talk show where he would point a flash light at his face (in a darkened room), sing the phrase “In the year 2000….”,  and make predictions about what life would be like in the year 2000ish?  Most of the time his predictions would be funny and often they would be wrong.  On this eve of the NFL draft, I’m hoping to achieve neither of these things with my NFL draft predictions.

I’m not one of those guys who come up with mock draft 1.0 – 137.0, starting the day after the Super Bowl and ending tomorrow afternoon.  When it comes to sports predictions, I like to wait and gather as much information as possible about any situation before forming an opinion or conclusion.  He are my humble opinions about some of the most talked about players entering this year’s draft.  No O-lineman, just my top 3 and the much debated QB’s of this draft.  They are in order of most to least talented (IMO)

 

1. Sammy Watkins – No other player has the level of talent combined with maturity and work ethic of Sammy Watkins.  If I were a GM, this is the guy I would target and/or trade up to get.  He is the best offensive player on the board.  Probably the next Julio Jones, maybe even better.  If he stays healthy, he will have the best career of anyone in this class.
2. Khalil Mack – The 1B to Sammy Watkins.  Best defensive player on the board. That’s right, I said board.  He has the potential to be the next Patrick Willis.  If my need is on the defensive side, I’m taking Mack before Roger Goodell can finish announcing whose turn it is to pick. 
3. Jadeveon Clowny – Freak of nature: skill combined with size.  Not sold on his metal game or work ethic, though.  While he’s got unlimited potential, I see this guy loving more the lifestyle football can bring him rather than what he can bring to the game of football.  I think he’s a Mario Williams clone.  Don’t get burned twice Houston.

Now for the QB’s………………

1.  Derek Carr – If I have to rank them all on talent level as of this point in time, I’m putting Carr first.  He’s a football junkie, has a cannon for an arm, is accurate, and a grinder.  He’s definitely better than his brother; just ask either one of them. If he and AJ Macarron traded colleges, Carr would have the same amount of titles and would be easily going #1 overall this year. Steal of a pick in late first round and beyond.
2. Blake Bortles – The next Ben Roethlisberger/ Joe Flacco.  Big, strong arm but a little unpolished.  If he reaches his full potential, Blake could overtake Carr as having the most success in the NFL of all the QB’s.  I like his size, arm, and football IQ, but he needs a couple of years to develop and fine tune.  Don’t know if he’s going to have that luxury.
3. Teddy Bridgewater – Mature and more accurate than his remaining competition.  Has some potential with the right coach.  Could have some early success, but will be a career back-up.
4. Johnny Manziel – Poor man’s RGIII and rich man’s Brady Quinn.  Undisciplined, not accurate, undersized, and ok arm.  Having said all of that, he is a playmaker and exciting.  He’s the Reggie Bush of this years’ QB class in that sense, and will be far less successful.  I give him 4-5 years max in the league.

I don’t want to get too carried away, so I’ll stop with my predictions there.  I’ll give this a few years to bake before I comment on this article again.  Hopefully I won’t be apologizing for completely whiffing.  Feel free to tell me how right or wrong you think I am already.


JRob

Overreaction Monday

          This is a term that is used by a few sports personalities here and there (when discussing football), but never seems to be taken to heart by the masses.  Furthermore, it’s amazing to me how even some members of the media will use this phrase to add satire to a segment, only to then go right into to doing the very thing they were just making fun of.  And just like clock work, “Overreaction Monday” happens EVERY Monday during the NFL season….and Tuesday, and Wednesday, and Thursday, and Friday and all the way up to the next game.  The same holds true for college football.  There is more flip flopping on teams and players from week to week, than a politician who’s running for re-election. 

 

         If you take nothing else away from this piece, please remember this: You have to let things play out, let the players work out some kinks, let the offensive/defensive schemes develop more, LET THINGS BAKE before you rush to judgment on what a team/player is or isn’t!

 

         Week 1 of the NFL season, Colin Kaepernick threw for 412 yards and 3 TD’s.  Monday, he was proclaimed by many in the media to be #2 only to Andrew Luck in terms of potential and a sure lock Hall Of Fame QB.  He was the “new” model of QB that all GM’s were going to draft, a dual threat athlete with a cannon for an arm.  The sky was the limit for Kaep and the 49ers…….ooops.  Now, in full disclosure, I drafted Kaep with my #1 pick in my fantasy keeper league.  I was hoping to get 250 -275 passing yards per game and 2-3 total TD’s per game (passing and rushing).  But with his main receiving weapons being out, I knew to even temper those expectations a little.  It drove me absolutely insane to hear the extreme high praise for him after week 1, to “the sky is falling” comments after week 2 when Kaep threw for 127 yards and 3 INT’s.

 

          Overreacting week to week is like listening to two opposing sides of an argument, and believing what ever side you heard last, to be fact.  I’ll let some of you in on a little secret…..(whispering) the truth always lies somewhere in between.  This is consistently true no matter the subject: politics, sports, baking, movie reviews,….anything.  After the first two weeks of the NFL season, I was guessing Colin Kaepernicks game stats were going to be somewhere close to his averaged results of these games.  But no matter what, before I decided to keep/trade/drop my 1^st round pick of my fantasy draft, I was going to LET IT BAKE for a while and see what happened.  IMO it typically takes until week 9 to figure out what a team or players identity is, and that’s the mark I was waiting for before pulling the trigger on any move.

 

Here are Kaep’s stats per game:

-          Through week 9:  Passing Yards = 186.1, TD’s = 1.33, and Rushing Yards = 34.4 

-          For the 2013 season: Passing Yards = 199.8, TD’s 1.56, Rushing = 32.75

 

         So he gained 13.7 passing yards per game, .23 TD’s and lost 1.69 rushing.  All in all, pretty similar stats.  And that’s with getting Crabtree back at the end of the year.  Once again, these stat lines are not the extreme of Week 1 or Week 2, but rather in between.

 

         Another example of “Over-reaction Monday” was with the Auburn Tigers this year.  On December 9^th, 2013 ESPN’s Colin Cowherd proclaimed that the Auburn Tigers would not only win this years’ BCS National Championship, but also win next years.  Guess when this prediction came (besides the date I just gave you)….the Monday after Auburn beat Alabama in their own stadium.  Cowherd didn’t stop there.  He then went on to declare that Auburn would consistently beat Alabama from this point on and Nick Saban would start losing more and more each year going forward.  All because of one loss.

 

        Well, we know he was wrong with his first prediction.  Florida State went on to win the BCS title.  (It was a close game, but FSU won none the less.)  We will have to wait and see how his 2^nd and 3^rd declarative statements turn out, but if I had to bet on it I would wager against both. 

 

       The moral to this story is – don’t be that guy.  This goes for all things in life, not just sports. Let things bake.  Let your emotions cool down, then analyze with a clear head, and make a rational judgment. 

JRob

I'm Just Sayin'.........

(January edition)

 

 

Things I’ve been thinking about:

• The San Antonio Spurs have had one of the NBA’s best records all season long.  However, against the other top teams in the NBA (Oklahoma City, Miami, Portland, Houston, Indiana, and the LA Clippers) they are 1-10.  Are they overrated and simply beating the teams they are supposed to, or are they a sleeping giant no one wants to see in the playoffs?

 

• The conversation of whether a Quarterback is great often revolves around Super bowl wins.  There are only 11 quarterbacks who have won multiple Super bowls (this list will grow by one if the Denver Broncos win this coming Sunday).  Does this list encompass the great quarterbacks?  Is Terry Bradshaw better than say, Dan Marino?  Here is the list of Quarterbacks who have won multiple Super bowls.

 

Wins	Player	Games	Team
4	Joe Montana	XVI, XIX, XXIII, XXIV	San Francisco 49ers
4	Terry Bradshaw	IX, X, XIII, XIV	Pittsburgh Steelers
3	Troy Aikman	XXVII, XXVIII, XXX	Dallas Cowboys
3	Tom Brady	XXXVI, XXXVIII, XXXIX	New England Patriots
2	Bart Starr	I, II	Green Bay Packers
2	Bob Griese	VII, VIII	Miami Dolphins
2	Roger Staubach	VI, XII	Dallas Cowboys
2	Jim Plunkett	XV, XVIII	Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders
2	John Elway	XXXII, XXXIII	Denver Broncos
2	Ben Roethlisberger	XL, XLIII	Pittsburgh Steelers
2	Eli Manning	XLII, XLVI	New York Giants

 

 

 

• Kevin Durant is on a torrid pace statistically this season averaging 31.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.  The only other players to ever average 31 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists for a full season are Elgin Baylor, Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James.  Good company.

• Was Richard Sherman's infamous post game interview the best ever?  The worst ever?  How does it compare with Bart Scott's 'Can't Wait' interview?  Is it even the best Richard Sherman interview?  Can anything possibly beat the 'Better at Life' beat down Sherman gave Skip Bayless on TV?

• Speaking of post game interviews, which of these famous head coach post game interviews is your favorite?
• They Are What We Thought They Were.
• Playoffs?
• You Play to Win the Game!
• I'm a Man, I'm 40!
• Game Face

 

• The 3's are a-flyin'!  Kyle Korver's streak of consecutive games with a 3 pointer is up to 113!  Meanwhile, Houston Rocket Chandler Parsons hit 10 consecutive 3's on January 24th.....in one half!

 

 

……..I’m just sayin’.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m Just Sayin’……

                                                               (December edition)

 

Things I’ve been thinking about:

 

• Even though they are often thought of as a “dome team” whose pass heavy offense relies on the safe confines of the Superdome, the New Orleans Saints have the best regular season road record in the NFL since 2009 (24-13)

• Despite the fact that he is considered a longstanding and essential piece to the Patriots dynasty and Superbowl dominance of the last 14 years, Wes Welker has never won a Superbowl.

 

• If Michael Jordan had played in the NBA until he was 37 (assuming career averages without retirement interruption, and factoring in a 10% gradual rate of decline), he would have comfortably been the all-time points leader finishing with around 40,093 points. He also would have had enough steals to pass John Stockton as the all-time leader with 3,339. Furthermore, he would be top 10 all-time assists with 7,724 and have the most of anyone who was not a point-guard.

 

• Mack Brown is leaving the University of Texas just 9 wins shy of the all time wins mark.

 

• Kyle Korver has made a 3 pointer in 94 consecutive games and counting. Think about that for a second.

• There are only 3 players in the history of Major League Baseball who have reached 3,000 hits and are not in the Hall of Fame:  Pete Rose (who was barred for gambling), Rafael Palmeiro (who tested positive for steroids), and Craig Biggio (who has never done anything wrong…..ever).  One of these things is not like the others Hall of Fame voters.

• Speaking of the Hall of Fame, in the NFL we are witnessing the final chapter in the career of one of the most underrated and arguably greatest linebackers in history.  He has 1,378 solo tackles, 23 interceptions, 19 forced fumbles, and 39 sacks.  His numbers are nearly identical to those of Ray Lewis and better than Brian Urlacher’s.  Hopefully, the lack of hype following London Fletcher will not influence Hall voters the way it has so far for Biggio.

•  A Hall of Fame pitching career?  You would think that a pitcher with a lifetime record of 94-46, who only allowed 10 homers in 1,221 innings, and finished with the 16^th best career ERA of 2.27 (only slightly behind Mariano Rivera's 2.20) would be able to make the Hall of Fame as a pitcher, wouldn’t you?  Well, don’t feel too badly for him.  He still made the Hall of Fame, but as a hitter.  His name is Babe Ruth.

..........I'm just sayin'.

 

 

MVP?

           What is it that makes us root for an underdog?  What is it that causes us to root against dynasties?  There seems to be something ingrained in us, as sports fans, that disallows us from wanting any one person, or team, to win too much.  We like to see first time winners, while we detest victors who are supposed to win often, and follow through.

            When a no name backup quarterback led the underdog Patriots to their first Superbowl win, they became national darlings.  Six years and two more rings later, the Patriots became a hated team most fans didn’t want to see go undefeated leading fans to root for a Giants team led by another unassuming, Cinderella story quarterback; Eli Manning.

            When Nick Saban led Alabama back to national prominence, college football fans cheered there recovery from obscurity.  But after winning 3 championships in four years they became a team people wanted to see go away.  We just don’t like to see anyone we don’t root for, win too often.

 

            I understand team allegiance.  I understand the desire for parity.  But there has been a trend, especially in the NBA, that shows such a great bias for newcomers and underdogs that really should be addressed.  The main culprit in the NBA is the MVP award.

            The MVP award is named such obviously because it is given to the most valuable player to their team, in the league.  Most of the time, this means the best player in the league for that given season.

            There have been several occasions, however, where the best player did not win.  Voters determined that a player, while not being the overall best, was simply more valuable to his team.  While this can stay in cohesion with the name, it also waters down what it means.

            Let me ask you this question; how could a player, who is considered the best player, not be the most valuable to his team?

            I have heard the argument that players with lesser talent around them have to do more for their team.  But, if they are doing it so well, why aren’t they considered the best player?  Are we really going to punish great players just because they have a decent teammate or two?

            Let me give you an example.  At the end of the 2010-2011 season, the NBA voters named Derrick Rose the MVP for the year.  Several voters later said that they didn’t think he was the best player, that was clearly LeBron James, but that Rose meant the most to his team because the Bulls would be bad without him.  A trophy that is supposed to reward the best, was given to someone they acknowledged was not the best because Rose was, they argued, just more valuable (or in other words, his teammates are garbage and LeBron plays with Dwyane Wade).

            But again I pose the question; how could a player who is considered the best player, not be considered the most valuable?

 

            This leads me back to my original thought.  We love an underdog.  We love someone who leads a team out of nowhere into title contention.  We love them more than the people who are expected to be great.

            In 1993, after winning back to back NBA titles and NBA MVP’s, Michael Jordan put up, statistically, the 21^st greatest season in the NBA…….ever.  Jordan put up 32.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.8 steals.  Numbers that were better than his previous season, in which he won the MVP.  Charles Barkley, not Jordan, was named the MVP of that season, however.  And while Barkley did have a career year (25ppg, 12rpg, 5apg), was it really better than Michael’s?  You just get the sense that when two players have great years, they give the award to the guy who hasn’t won one yet.  Why?  Because we love an underdog and we don’t like to reward guys who are expected to be great, and then are.

 

            I hope that this trend does not continue this year.  LeBron James is widely considered the best player in the world.  He is again putting up historical numbers that put him in very hallowed company.  And yet, the chatter for early season MVP usually centers around Paul George and Kevin Love.  And while these two are having great years, let’s not punish LeBron for being as good as we expect him to be.  Give the MVP award to the season’s best player regardless of MVP history and preconceived expectations.

 

 

Other Notes:

•  Of the top 11 statistical seasons in NBA history, LeBron James has 4, Michael Jordan has 4, and Wilt Chamberlain has 3.

• There have been a number of weird MVP votes throughout the years.  In 1962, Wilt Chamberlain averaged 50 points a game (50!) and 23.1 Win Shares, and didn’t win the MVP.  In 1997, Karl Malone won the MVP of the league when, statistically, he wasn’t even the best player on his own team.  And in 1993 David Robinson had the 12^th best statistical season in NBA history, and didn’t win the MVP.

I'm Just Sayin'.......

(November Edition)

Things I’ve been thinking about:

 

• The only player in the top 20 in career batting average to play after the 1960’s is Tony Gwynn at 17^th with a .338 average.  The highest current player?  Joe Mauer, 40^th, .323

• Aaron Rodgers is unquestionably the best quarterback in the NFL in at least one category:  The Photobomb.   Proof: http://www.rodgersphotobomb.com/

• Most passing yards thru first 100 career games?  Tony Romo – 27,485
• Best career Quarterback Rating in the 4^th quarter?  Tony Romo – 102.1

• Tom Brady’s career playoff quarterback rating? 87.3
• Peyton Manning’s career playoff quarterback rating? 86.2
• A year after winning their division, Tom Brady suffered a season ending injury and the Patriots went 11-5.
• A year after winning their division, Peyton Manning suffered a season ending injury and the Colts went 2-14.

• The only active pitcher in the top 50 in career strikeouts is CC Sabathia.  If you doubled his total, he would still be 1000 K’s short of Nolan Ryan’s 5714 career total.

• The only player to ever win three consecutive NBA Defensive Player of the Year awards, is also the only player to ever lead the NBA in rebounding and blocks in two consecutive seasons, and is also the only player ever to lead the NBA in rebounding, blocks, and field goal percentage in the same year.  That player?   Dwight Howard

• Kobe Bryant will make 30.4 million for the 2013 season; or 51.8% of the 58.7 million salary cap.  Think that’s too much?
• In 1998, Michael Jordan made 33.1 million; or 123% of the 26.9 million salary cap.

• In 2013, the New York Yankees had 4 of the top 10 highest paid players in Major League Baseball.  Combined, these four make more than the entire roster of 16 MLB teams.

..........I'm just sayin'.

Time For a Defense "QBR"

     Well, I couldn’t just say time for a new “DR”.  No one would have a clue as to what I was talking about, nor would anyone continue reading this article.  Thus all my efforts writing this would be for not.  Seriously though, is anyone else sick of hearing sportscasters refer to the “best defense” in the league by referring to the FEWEST YARDS ALLOWED ranking?!?  I’ve never understood why the NFL (who I’m assuming is the responsible party) has chosen to use this category as their sort-able stat in ranking defenses.  This makes as much sense as ranking Quarterbacks by HIGHEST COMPLETIONS PER GAME.  Or to use a different sport analogy, ranking the best Defensive players in the NBA by FEWEST POINTS SCORED ON per game.  While having a high completion percentage or allowing the fewest points per game contributes to the success of each position, this is not, nor should it be, the only stat to take into consideration when ranking said positions.

        Let’s look at the current rankings as of the end of week 8, basically half way through the NFL season.   Here are you’re Top 10 Defenses, according to the current ranking system, of FEWEST YARDS ALLOWED:  #1 Houston, #2 Carolina, #3 Pittsburg, #4 Seattle, #5 Oakland, #6 Green Bay, #7 New Orleans, #8 Tennessee, #9 Tampa Bay, and #10 Baltimore.   Man, they nailed it!  That’s exactly who I would have guessed to be the top 10 defenses!  (Insert sarcastic remark #3 here.)     I mean, c’mon.  Houston #1? Oakland #4? The Bucs #9?!?!  Now, once again, I’m not saying this stat isn’t a contributing factor in determining who is the best defense.  Obviously teams like Carolina and Seattle are very good and it’s not surprising that they are in the top 4 in this category.   What I am saying is that we can’t be using a commodore 64 when compiling stats and only using the fewest yards allowed category when ranking defenses.  Even if we just look at Points Allowed per game, this would give us a better indication of who truly is the better defense(s) in the league.  Here are the Top 10 in this category:  #1 Kansas City, #2 Carolina, #3 Seattle, #4 New Orleans, #5 New England, #6 San Francisco, #7 Cincinnati, #8 Indianapolis, #9 San Diego, #10 Tennessee.  Now that’s starting to shape up more like a Top 10 ranking.  

       I would submit that points per game, opponents average starting field position, sacks, hurries, pressures, forced fumbles, interceptions, 4^th down stops, and strength of opponent are all statistics that should be taken into consideration when ranking a defense.  Allowing points and yards during garbage time in a blowout should be weighed less than allowing the same points and yardage during a game that is a close fought battle. 

       This is the very reason why ESPN, the brilliant people that they are, developed the new QBR or Quarterback Ranking system.  First, they realized that the old rating system where the max score was a weird random number of 158.3 just didn’t make any sense to any human being, not named Ingleburt Pointdexter.  So the first thing they did was simplified the new QBR by making the scoring from 1 – 100 with 100 being the best.  Ahhhhh……clear/concise/logic at last.  But that is where the simplicity ends my friends, as well it should.  They then chose to incorporate into their ranking formula anything and everything a QB does during a game and even WHEN he does those actions.  So just like I requested in my for-mentioned example, a 15 yard first down completion is weighted more when done in the 4^th quarter with 2 minutes remaining versus when done in the 1^st quarter.  Make sense?  I’m not going to pretend I know every nuance of the formula, but it incorporates pretty much every aspect of the game that would determine a true ability ranking of all QBs.   This is exactly what we need for Defenses.