Responsible Rebuilding

 

Nearly every professional sports team has had to face the reality that is rebuilding.  Restarting once your current plan has been exhausted; rebooting because the talent isn’t coming to fruition the way it was supposed to; mismanaging salaries; or losing long tenured players that reach the end of their careers or effectiveness.  All are issues that sports franchises have faced which eventually led to a rebuild.

While we have seen teams like the Yankees continually reload by throwing money at the highest priced free agents on the market, they have also shown that reckless spending does not directly coincide with championships.  Often, these hefty signings and acquisitions of high priced talent lead to the Yankees being handcuffed to these same players when their salary suddenly outweighs their production (see Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, etc.). 

          However, when it comes to rebuilding the Yankees are the exception not the rule.  Most teams at some point, whether due to the salary cap, underperforming players, or a myriad of other reasons, must consider rebuilding.  And there are several ways that teams attempt to do it.

           
The All In

 
          The "All In" approach is one that is daring and exciting, but does not produce consistent results.  This approach happens when a team pushes all of its hope, finances, and assets, in at one time, in hopes of pulling off a championship season before having to dismantle their team for financial reasons.  While this method can be fun and entertaining in the short term for fans, it also often means having to completely restart your team, win or lose, the following year.  Examples of the "All In" that have found success include the ‘12 Baltimore Ravens and the ’97 & ’03 Florida Marlins.  I say the Florida Marlins because they have tried the "All In" once since they became the Miami Marlins only to see it fail miserably forcing them to sell off every asset they had.  Before the name change however, the Marlins twice won the World Series pushing all in.  And in both cases they had to dump many of their high priced players the following year.

In 1997, the Florida Marlins hired a high profile manager in Jim Leyland, and signed big name free agents Bobby Bonilla, Moises Alou, and Alex Fernandez to lucrative free agent contracts.  They would join an already strong team featuring staff ace Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, closer Robb Nen, catcher Darren Daulton, outfielder Gary Sheffield, shortstop Edgar Renteria, and pitcher Livan Hernandez.  This talented team earned a wild card berth, and eventually won the 1997 World Series.

However, just days after the World Series was over, owner Wayne Huizenga claimed the team took financial losses despite having won the World Series and began one of the biggest and most well known fire sales in sports history.  Huizenga traded away Alou, Brown, Sheffield, Charles Johnson, and Bonilla all for much younger, much cheaper, and less talented players.  The team that took the field in 1998 went on to produce a 54-108 record, the worst in the majors.

2003 saw a similar, although a little less drastic, victory followed by an overhaul.  After winning the World Series this time, the Marlins traded Derrek Lee and lost closer Ugueth Urbina and team leader Ivan Rodriguez to free agency.  Both of these seasons were seen as an ‘all in’ attempt by ownership that paid off.

 Similarly, the Ravens won a Super Bowl by pushing all in, only to be forced to let many of their best players walk the following year.  After an inspired victory in this past Super Bowl, the Ravens lost future Hall of Famers Ray Lewis and Ed Reed to retirement and free agency respectively.  They were also forced to trade star Wide Receiver Anquan Boldin to the 49ers.  These were purely cost cutting moves, as the Ravens had no financial flexibility due to their spending the previous year.  All told, the 2012 Ravens lost 8 starting players from their Super Bowl run.  This decrease in talent has led to a 3-4 start to the 2013 season, and a significant decrease in overall playmaking ability.

            These are examples of the All In paying off.  Unfortunately, there are many more examples of teams pushing all in only to fall short while still suffering the consequences.  The Washington Redskins of 2000, the Marlins of ’12, the Lakers of ’04, and the Red Sox of ’12 all pushed money and assets in for a run only to see it fail causing them to retool the following year; and there are many, many more.

 

The Drafting Method

 

            This could also be called the “We’re Just Smarter than You,” or the “I Knew it All Along” method, as all it really requires is simply being right; a lot.  But with the amount of luck, or lack thereof, that is inevitable in sports; this method can’t really be bottled or relied upon.

            The idea behind this approach is simply to trust your own ability to draft great talent.  When a team is bad enough, they will be rewarded with high draft selections.  And then it is up to the team to decide how best to use them.

            A team that is consistently bad usually coincides with the team being consistently unproductive in the draft.  This past season, the Pittsburgh Pirates had a winning record for the first time since 1992.  For a long time, they have relied mainly on the draft for their players, which leads one to believe that either the players they are drafting onto their team are simply not adequate, or they are just extremely unlucky.  A deeper look at the drafts they have had indicate that it is the former.

            As far as being unlucky, let’s spare the people of Portland, Oregon by only briefly mentioning that they drafted Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan, and Greg Oden over Kevin Durant.  Both of these picks were considered logical picks at the time.  Looking back, however, has caused many people in the City of Roses to ask, “What if…?”

 

            The prime example of this strategy working, though, has to be the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Many thought they were crazy when the then Seattle Supersonics traded away superstar Ray Allen for a draft pick, becoming a team that was between mediocre and bad for several seasons which also included a move to Oklahoma City.  This is how the rebuild started, however.  Using only their draft picks, from 2007 to 2009 the Thunder assembled a team of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden.  Meaning that, according to a recent survey, this franchise drafted 3 of the top 5 current players in the NBA.  That is excellent drafting.

             Like the first method, however, this one seems to leave more teams in the losing category than the championship one.

 

Responsible Rebuilding

 

            There are also teams that are models of what could be called ‘Responsible Rebuilding.’  These teams seem to be consistently competitive while also being financially responsible.  History has shown us that this is the most reliable and responsible way to build a franchise.

A recent example of this is the St. Louis Cardinals.  The Cardinals have made 4 World Series in the last decade (2004, 2006, 2011, and 2013), winning the World Series in 2006 and 2011.  This was not accomplished by free spending, but by being fiscally responsible and building from within their own system.  The effectiveness of their methods and the refusal to overpay and overextend players was proven when they allowed Albert Pujols, a generational kind of talent, walk to the Anaheim Angels instead of paying him the money many felt he was worth.  They set a bar for how much they would offer, the Angels offered more, Pujols walked.  Instead of overpaying for one player, the Cardinals invested long term into their current system.  This system is a mixture of continually bringing up solid players from their deep farm system, and finding bargains on the open market.  How did it work out?  The Cardinals made another World Series while Pujols’ numbers greatly declined and the Angels missed the playoffs entirely.

In fact, this method has become so successful and well known that it is often referenced simply as the "Cardinals Way."  The success of their farm system is shown by the fact that this years team, currently competing in the World Series, boasts 18 out of 25 players drafted and brought up by the Cardinals.  And while the current Cardinals do have a few well paid players, none can really be described as overpaid.

            There are two more intriguing rebuilds that can be categorized as responsible rebuilds that could end up paying massive dividends.  And both of these teams happen to be from the same city; the Houston Rockets and the Houston Astros.  These teams have both, for different reasons, undergone a rebuild that seems to be the envy of the other franchises in similar situations.

             Suffering from a history of gutting their farm system for big name players that either left the team or didn’t pan out (Randy Johnson, Carlos Beltran, Miguel Tejada, etc.), the Astros became a team that was not overly competitive and also had one of the weakest minor league systems in baseball.  Knowing the position the team was in; new ownership took notice of the previously mentioned Cardinals and saw that they were doing things the right way.  So they hired Jeff Lunhow away from St. Louis to be their new GM and began a complete rebuild.

            Every asset that could net prospects was dealt for minor league potential.  They got rid of all major salary and became the worst team in baseball.....for three consecutive years.  The result, however, was three consecutive first overall picks and a completely replenished farm system that Bleacher Report recently ranked second overall.  And while they have yet to see most of this talent at the major league level, the Astros are building a franchise that instead of being consistently mediocre with a chance to win, has the potential to be consistently competitive year after year.  And while I think other franchises will copy the St. Louis model, Houston is the first to buy in and undergo a complete overhaul to do it.  And if we believe what we hear from Houston, this is the way things are going to go for the foreseeable future.  Build a foundation that can set you up for the future and don’t gamble for a one year run.

             The Rockets reached their need for a rebuild from a totally different path.  They had built a team that was supposed to contend for championships around the foundation of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, but injuries to both of their superstars put them in a place that haunts NBA owners and GM’s everywhere: basketball purgatory.  In this place resides teams that are simultaneously too good for quality draft picks, and too bad for true championship contention. 

            Upon the end of the TMac-Yao era, the Rockets finished with the 9^th seed in the western conference for three consecutive years.  Meaning they were the best team that didn’t make the playoffs; good for the 14^th overall pick in the draft.  This is a hard place to escape from.  What with no stars to lean on, and no high draft picks to develop, it is a wonder anyone ever escapes this purgatory. 

            Enter Daryl Morey.  A man known for his use of statistical knowledge and data, Morey put in place a plan to rebuild the Rockets by compiling a huge bevy of assets and young players.  Unlike baseball, though, assets like draft picks and young players are sometimes best used as trade bait to catch a true superstar.  So, like other wise GM’s before him, he refused to overpay for good players; being unwilling to offer ‘max’ money to players who aren’t max players (ie. Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, Carlos Boozer, Eric Gordon, etc.), just to be competitive.  Instead, he would wait and bide his time until the right deal came along to snag a player worth max money.  By sticking to his plan, and with a little luck, Daryl Morey not only grabbed one superstar worthy of a maximum salary, he got two.

            Implementing a beautiful mixture of frugal contracts, brilliant drafts picks, and stockpiling future picks, Morey gained enough assets to be perfectly primed to consummate a deal when the time was right.

            The first opportunity came when the Oklahoma City Thunder (fresh off a finals appearance) could not afford to keep all four of their star players: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden.   After deciding to keep Ibaka over Harden, the Thunder were forced to look at the trade market to prevent losing Harden for nothing.  The Rockets, flush with tradable assets, were more than happy to fill the role of trade partner.  Thus, the Rockets landed Harden in what is fast becoming one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory in Houston’s favor.

            The Rockets locked up Harden, only 23 at the time, long term and were well on their way to contender status.  But, due to the consistent frugality and salary cap brilliance of their GM, they still had room to afford one more maximum salary player.  Already a young, talented team on the rise, the Rockets attracted free agent Dwight Howard, widely considered the best big man in the NBA, to leave the Los Angeles Lakers and create a team in Houston that could be title contenders for years to come.

            Daryl Morey’s ability to put together this team while maintaining financial flexibility and still possessing a few assets for potential future trades (Hello Omer Asik), is truly quite extraordinary. 

            Salary cap extraordinaire David Weiner (@BimaThug), recently wrote a piece with a brilliant and in depth look at this process and takes a glance at where the Rockets are now, and moving forward on Clutchfans.net, the leading NBA fan site of the Rockets, where he is a regular blogger.  Read it here.    

 

            There is no blueprint for rebuilding, as the situation that every team comes from is different.  The ability to compete in the present while also building for the future is a luxury that few have.  But, judging by the numbers and the recent history of different franchise’s approaches to rebuilding; it seems fair to say that financial responsibility and the patience to build a good foundation win out over the tactics of binge spending and robbing the future for the present.

            Occasionally, there is a team that swings for the fences and wins it all; but more often than not, responsible rebuilding is a more likely way to ensure a consistently competitive franchise for the long haul.